JYVASKYLA, Finland & WAGENINGEN, Netherlands - s4story -- A recent study by Nguyen et al. from Wageningen University and Research and the Flanders Research Institute for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food examined two key questions: how demand for growing media may develop geographically by 2050, and whether sufficient raw materials are likely to be available to meet that demand.

Growing media (also known as potting soil or substrates) are essential for modern horticulture, supporting the cultivation of food crops, tree seedlings, ornamentals and mushrooms on an industrial scale. They contribute to an efficient use of water and nutrients and therefore play an important role in soilless cultivation systems worldwide, providing food and well-being to millions of people.

The study, "The growth of growing media market by 2050: demand and availability of raw materials", published in Frontiers in Horticulture on 26 May, updates the earlier global analysis by Chris Blok et al., Growing media for food and quality of life in the period 2020-2050 from 2021. It incorporates recent market data, additional known trends, improved regional and market segmentation, and newer estimates of constituent availability.

Growing media demand could quadruple by 2050

The results indicate that global demand for growing media could increase by approximately 250–290% by 2050, confirming the scale of growth from the previous study. Particularly strong growth is projected in the ornamental and tree nursery sectors, with the largest increases expected in China (430–570%) and in emerging markets across Asia, South America, and Africa.

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Using 2022 data as a baseline, the researchers analysed five market segments: food crops, ornamentals, tree nurseries, mushroom casing for button mushrooms and the hobby market. On the constituent side, the assessment considered eight major raw materials: peat, coir, wood fibre, bark, compost, mineral wool, perlite, and aggregate materials.

Sufficient supply of materials not guaranteed

Researchers assessed the potential availability of raw materials under different scenarios. While sufficient constituent materials are available to meet projected demand under the highest availability assumptions, the study also identifies a potential gap under more constrained conditions.

Under a low-availability scenario, approximately 17 million cubic metres of additional constituents would be required by 2050. Identifying suitable new materials therefore remains a key challenge for the sector. These projections rely on the assumption that the supply industry and growing media infrastructure can scale up sufficiently to process all available raw materials.

Usage of peat to decrease by percentage but stay at current volumes

According to the study, global peat extraction for horticultural use amounts to approximately 59 million cubic metres per year. By 2050, peat use in growing media is projected to remain within a similar range of 53–63 million cubic metres.

However, as demand for growing media increases and the use of other constituent materials expands, peat's share of the overall growing media market is projected to decrease from around 50% today to approximately 18–19% by 2050. While potential demand for peat could be substantially higher, projected peat use remains constrained by the applied availability assumptions.

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Future requirements

The authors emphasise that the study should be viewed as a framework for ongoing assessment rather than as a fixed forecast. Future developments will depend on many factors, including market trends, technological advances, processing capabilities, economic conditions and the successful scaling-up of raw material production. The findings also underline the need for continued research into material sourcing, processing technologies and efficient resource use to support future innovations.

The research was commissioned by the International Peatland Society (IPS) as part of its efforts to improve understanding of developments in the growing media sector and their implications for the responsible management and use of peatlands and peat. Future developments in the sector are relevant to many aspects of peatland management, including site selection, impact mitigation, peat use, post-extraction land use and rewetting.

Full paper

Nguyen VTH, Blok C, Barbagli T, Zheng Z, Mondaca-Duarte F and Vandecasteele B (2026) The growth of growing media market by 2050: demand and availability of raw materials. Front. Hortic. 5:1800056. https://doi.org/10.3389/fhort.2026.1800056

About the IPS

The International Peatland Society (IPS) is the leading international organisation dedicated to the responsible management and wise use of peatlands and peat. Founded in 1968, IPS brings together more than 1,000 members from 37 countries, including researchers, practitioners, companies, government organisations and other stakeholders.

Through its publications, projects and events, the Society promotes the exchange of knowledge and experience on peatland-related issues, including climate change, biodiversity, responsible use and restoration. Learn more: www.peatlands.org