DALLAS - s4story -- HearthDry, a home water damage information site, analysed every residential claim in FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program claims file from 2015 through 2025: 572,863 claims in total. 20.3% of them, 116,110 claims, closed without a dollar paid.

Where FEMA recorded a reason, 76.8% of refusals came down to three findings: the loss was not an actual flood, the damage was smaller than the deductible, or the adjuster found no demonstrable damage. "Not an actual flood" was the largest single reason, at 31.2% of recorded refusals.

When a claim was paid, the median payout was $39,440. Across 440,232 paid building claims, the median gap between assessed damage and the amount paid was $1,250, or 3.7% of the assessed figure, roughly the size of a deductible.

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The study's conclusion for homeowners: the financial risk in flood insurance is rarely being underpaid on a covered loss. It is finding out that the loss was never covered. Water from a burst pipe, a failed water heater, a roof leak or a backed-up drain is not a flood under the program's definition and belongs on a homeowners policy instead.

The full analysis, with state-by-state results and methodology, is free to cite with attribution: https://hearthdry.com/research/nfip-flood-claim-payouts