CHICHESTER, U.K. - s4story -- A new report from Aethr Associates finds the UK is not only dependent on fresh fruit and vegetables from regions facing worsening climate conditions, but is shifting sourcing to regions at greater risk of water stress and flooding.

The UK produces just 14% of the fresh fruit and 56% of the fresh vegetables it consumes. Approximately 65% of total fresh produce supply is imported, a dependence that has grown steadily since the nineties.

Between 2019 and 2025, UK imports from Mediterranean North Africa rose by 117%, from North Africa and the Sahel by 45%, and from Southern Africa by 35%. All three regions face significant water stress, some also rate high for flood risk. Imports from Western and Central Europe, the regions with the lowest climate risk profile, fell by 35%.

The regions gaining market share carry greater current and long-term climate risk, not less. Without a more deliberate strategy, the report warns the UK risks concentrating its food supply in the places more likely to face disrupted growing seasons, water shortages, and extreme weather in the coming decades.

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The commercial pressures driving these sourcing decisions are real. As Richard Bonn, Co-Founder of Aethr Associates, argues, "The immediate financial case for sourcing from these regions is understandable, but it is being weighed against the wrong timescale. We are solving next season's problem by increasing the risk to the next decade's supply."

Aethr's earlier research found that by 2050, 72% of produce from the UK's ten biggest source countries would be exposed to very high water stress. The new analysis adds a further concern: UK sourcing patterns are accelerating that exposure. An incoming El Niño, with more than a 90% probability of extreme weather events expected this autumn and winter according to NOAA, increases the immediate threat.

The report is clear that food security does not require total self-sufficiency. Some produce (bananas, citrus fruit, mangoes, avocados, and other tropicals) cannot be grown commercially in the UK. For these, the priority is building more resilient, diversified import supply chains. Moving volume from one at-risk region to another does not reduce exposure: it relocates it.

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For other categories, the case for domestic investment is strong. Of the 9.5 million tonnes of fresh produce consumed in the UK in 2025, 60% came from categories where UK production met less than half of demand. The report identifies cucumbers (20% UK-produced), tomatoes (17%), apples and pears (52%), and onions and alliums (51%) as among the areas where investment in technology, protected production, and extended growing seasons could reduce import dependency and climate exposure. Where UK production already regularly exceeds 50% (root vegetables, brassicas, peas, and beans) the priority is to protect existing capacity.

Aethr Insight UK Climate Risk Report | Aethr Associates (https://www.aethr.co.uk/strategic-papers/aethr-insight-uk-climate-risk-report)